By Dr. James Stalker

[Blog #4] The Difficulty in Quantifying the Extent of Global Warming or Cooling

I mentioned about the difficulty in understanding and quantifying future atmospheric states in one of my previous blogs (see http://jrstalker.wordpress.com ). This blog elaborates on that difficulty with examples. 

Most of us, earth system and atmospheric scientists, other scientists and engineers, and non-scientists of all other disciplines, can easily grasp the concept that the coupled Earth system is extremely complex to understand in its entirety and accurately quantify its future states, even on short time horizons. For example, our ability to accurately predict future atmospheric states is limited to two to three days at best. And yet, scientists have always tried to forecast future states on much longer time scales such as annual, decadal, and millennial scales. What is the basis for such claimed ability to predict future atmospheric states on much longer time scales accurately? It is all based on our presumed ability to separate scales, both spatially and temporally, and treat some of those scales independently of the others to perform predictive projections of future atmospheric states. This ’separation of scales’ certainly helps overcome the inherent difficulty noted here in accurately predicting the coupled solar-earth system but it does not actually help us solve the underlying problem that we face.

In the old days of not too long ago when sparse observations were not uncommon and limited computational resources were a norm, such unsupportable scale separation was not only encouraged but was perhaps the only and most effective approach that could be employed. We have made tremendous strides on those two fronts, i.e., the density of observations has increased significantly, just as the available computational resource. Unfortunately, though, our legacy approach based on scale separation lives on. Unless we vehemently question this fundamentally flawed premise, our new developments in computational resources and/or our dense observations will not provide any useful benefit in understanding and predicting future atmospheric states. A comprehensive and all-scale inclusive approach must be employed to advance our ability to predict the coupled solar-earth system behavior.

One relatively simplistic idea has been floated around that global warming or cooling can be correlated with the total solar radiative input into the earth system. In other words, more solar radiation increases the global average temperature while reduced solar radiation causes the temperature to drop. Sounds plausible, right? There is a problem here. It is rather simplistic and relies again on the assumption that ’separation of scales’ can be a useful approach to solving this extremely difficult problem.

If we take a closer look at the above idea and analyze it, it becomes rather apparent that such an assumption is invalid. For example, let’s hold the Sun’s radiation output constant for two calendar years. During the first year, the weather at a location, say, Las Cruces, New Mexico (where I live), changes as it may. However, the weather on July 4th of the second year will be totally different than the weather on July 4th of the first year at that location. Why is that? We did hold the solar output constant for those two years. The answer lies in the fact that the Earth system is a giant mixer, constantly mixing fluids of different properties. This constant mixing also mandates simultaneous consideration of all scales for successful attempts to predict future atmospheric states. In the end, to that person living in Las Cruces or elsewhere in the world, the real interest is in knowing exactly how their weather changes in the next 24, 48, 72 hours and not what is happening to the so-called global average temperature. We all know that we can’t do a good enough job on the 72-hour time horizon but we claim to understand global warming/cooling on much longer time horizons. Needless to say we have a lot of work to do. I hope all nations of the world will invest adequate research funding to undertake critically important and more comprehensive approaches to understanding weather and climate.

Here is a note for those who are not familiar with atmospheric scales and the concept of ’separation of scales.’ Let’s imagine covering the globe with a mesh of a specific size one at a time. Now let’s superimpose such meshes on top of one another from a finest mesh (100-m) to a really coarsest mesh (1000-km). Now imagine ignoring the lowest finer meshes and using only the coarsest (top most) meshes, the earth system behavior captured in these coarsest few meshes is rather different and unrealistic than when more and more finest meshes are employed in addition to the coarsest meshes. This is because atmospheric processes are known to occur in all of these meshes simultaneously. By ignoring processes in certain meshes while retaining the others gives rise to the concept of ’separation of scales.’ This also leads to severe limitations in our ability to predict future atmospheric states accurately.

[Blog #3] What is lost in the global warming debate?, December 14, 2009(jrstalker.wordpress.com)

[Blog #2] On the Global Warming Debate, October 4, 2009  (jrstalker.wordpress.com)

[Blog #1]  The Week of August 10th thru August 16th

Title:  Am I Cut Out for Being a High-Caliber CTO?

Someone recently approached me and posed a matter-of-fact question?  If I were to pitch someone on my technology skills to be their next CTO, what would I say to them?

Here is what my response would be:

I must say I have strong background in several different technical areas.  For example, I own and operate an R&D company, where I developed cutting-edge wind assessment and forecasting products using atmospheric CFD models and supercomputing resources.  We have recently spun a high-tech company based on the wind assessment technology, where I served as its full time CTO for the past 2 years.  I had built the computer hardware systems and custom developed the software for this high-tech company and for my R&D company as well.  Additionally, I was the lead technical advisor to an innovative technology company that developed a patent pending technology to tap into wave energy.  So, my strengths are varied and in-depth in terms of professional backgrounds in science and engineering and are also rooted in software development and in putting together novel hardware solutions for high-tech companies.

More importantly, I have the technical background to help build innovative technologies and manage the technology maturation process from very early stages all the way to commercialization.  I have trained and supervised technical staff and have been trained in newest leadership techniques.  I see bottom lines clearly and at the same time encourage a little dreaming to embark on futuristic (high risk/reward) technologies.

I prefer to help start ups but mid-size and large companies are of interest to me also, especially if the terms of engagement are right, the problem is quite challenging, and the opportunity to make a positive impact is real.

For your information, a few specific areas of interest of mine are:

1.  Renewable energy technologies
2.  IT software/hardware companies
3.  Companies with aggressive patent development portfolios
4.  Companies developing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for many different application areaswww.respr.com), write articles for trade and peer-reviewed journals.  I have made numerous technical presentations and served on technical panels.  I invite you to check out my web site at www.respr.com or my LinkedIn profile at www.linkedin.com/in/precisionwindfounder for further details.  Let’s chat when you are ready!

I write blogs (e.g., Forbes CEO Network, weekly blogs at www.respr.com), write articles for trade and peer-reviewed journals.  I have made numerous technical presentations and served on technical panels.  I invite you to check out my web site at www.respr.com or my LinkedIn profile at www.linkedin.com/in/resprincfounder for further details.  Let’s chat when you are ready!